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Can I trust Notice Price?
Can I trust Notice Price?

Notice Price is based on the most accurate pricing algorithm and the best private market data inputs available.

Updated over a week ago

Intro

Notice Price reflects the current market consensus for a company's common stock price. To determine the current market consensus, Notice is based on the most accurate pricing algorithm in the best private market data inputs available.

What makes Notice's pricing algorithm the most accurate?

The accuracy of any pricing algorithm is measured by the ability to predict the next trade price. Using this measure, Notice Price is the most accurate pricing available in the private market.

Predictive range for the next trade

Our 80% confidence predictive range of the next trade for companies with high private market consensus (indicated by dark blue/grey Notice Price Drivers icon) is +/- 9% of the current price.

Our 80% confidence predictive range of the next trade for companies with low private market consensus (indicated by light blue/grey Notice Price Drivers icon) is +/- 20% of the the current price.

Examples of the accuracy of Notice Price

SpaceX: Notice predicted a price of $77.69 in advance of their last tender at $80.00 β€” off by only 2.9%.

Stripe: Notice predicted a price of $20.07 and they ended up raising at $20.13 β€” off by only 0.3%

Ramp: Notice priced the stock at $18.67 the day before their down round at $20.00 β€” off by only 6.5%.

You can read more about Notice Price accuracy here.

What makes Notice Price data inputs the best available?

We use five data inputs to determine Notice Price:

  1. Financing rounds: Financing round valuations

  2. Internal marks: 409A appraisals

  3. External marks: Quarterly '40 Act mutual fund marks

  4. Private market data: Verified executed trades and open bids and offers

  5. Public comparables: Proprietary basket of public peer companies

We source trades, bids and offers from a global data collective of market participants, which include 90+ independent brokers and 2,500+ individual investors.

We verify all trade data before incorporating it into our pricing algorithm, and we incorporate trades and open bids and offers contextually, based on the size of the trades/orders and the data source (eg. market expertise of the trading parties).

You can read more about how we determine Notice Price here.

If you ever find that a company's stock price on Notice doesn't agree with your data, please contact us at [email protected] and share your data so we can incorporate it into our algorithm. This is the best way to ensure that our published prices reflect as much private market activity as possible.

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