Notice Price has consistently delivered high-quality modeled pricing for private companies—especially for issuers with frequent private market activity.
As we expand our priced universe beyond 1,200 companies, we’re making targeted enhancements designed to perform even better for lower-activity issuers, where “fresh” private market price anchors are less common.
These updates do two things at once:
Reduce negative bias that can build up in certain low-activity scenarios, so prices better reflect the full market reality.
Add stronger safeguards against optimism by incorporating issuer health and staleness dynamics, so the model remains disciplined when private market activity is limited.
What’s improving
Better handling in low-signal periods
For companies that go longer between financings, trades, or other high-confidence price anchors, the model must rely more on public market factors and other supporting signals. This release strengthens how Notice Price behaves in these lower-signal stretches—improving consistency and responsiveness while maintaining the same anchored approach we use when private market data is abundant.
Clearer linkage between issuer health and daily movement
We’ve strengthened how operational and health-related signals influence day-to-day pricing behavior. This helps the model respond more intelligently when a company’s growth profile changes over time, particularly when new private market price anchors are infrequent.
Staleness-aware adjustments that improve over time
As time passes since the last strong price anchor, the updated approach applies staleness-aware mechanics that temper upside participation in a structured way—helping keep modeled prices aligned with the realities of private company dynamics over time.
What this means for users
These enhancements help Notice Price stay consistent and useful across a larger universe of private companies—especially those with limited private market activity—without sacrificing the discipline needed when private markets are quiet.
In practice, lower-activity issuers will now be priced more appropriately relative to their prior paths and may see meaningful level adjustments as a result of these model adjustments.
Higher-activity issuers are largely unaffected by this model update.